Vermont House of Representatives: Welch (D) 64%, Beaudry (R) 30%

Rasmussen Reports

Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the race for Vermont’s only seat in the U.S. House of Representatives finds Democratic Congressman Peter Welch well ahead of his Republican challenger, Paul Beaudry.

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Welch earning 64% of the vote to Beaudry’s 30%.  Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) remain undecided.

Welch, who is seeking a third two-year term, is favored by 98% of voters in his own party and 19% of Republicans. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans support Beaudry, a political newcomer and conservative activist.  Among voters not affiliated with either political party, the incumbent leads his GOP challenger by a 64% to 27% margin.

Beaudry won a three-way Republican primary contest this past Tuesday.  Welch, who faced no major opposition in 2008, was unchallenged in this year’s Democratic primary. He is only the second Democrat to represent Vermont in the House since 1854.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Vermont was conducted on September 13, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Vermont Democrat Patrick Leahy, a member of the U.S. Senate since 1975, hasn’t had a close race in 30 years, and this year’s contest appears unlikely to break that tradition.

Just days after emerging as the winner of an extremely close Democratic primary, Peter Shumlin is running slightly ahead of Republican Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie in Vermont’s gubernatorial race.

Only four percent (4%) of voters in the state rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 55% give the country’s economy a poor rating.  Thirty-five percent (35%) say economic conditions in the United States are getting better these days, but slightly more (39%) say they’re getting worse.

Among voters who feel the economy is getting better, 90% support Welch.  Voters who feel the economy is getting worse are more narrowly divided.

Sixty-five percent (65%) of all Vermont voters share a favorable opinion of Welch, including 39% who have a Very Favorable opinion of him.  Twenty-eight percent (28%) view the Democrat unfavorably, with 16% who have a Very Unfavorable impression. Only seven percent (7%) have no opinion of the incumbent.

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