North Dakota House: Berg 51%, Pomeroy 44%

Rasmussen Reports

Republican challenger Rick Berg continues to hold a modest advantage again this month in his contest with Democratic incumbent Earl Pomeroy for North Dakota’s only House seat.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in North Dakota shows Berg with 51% support to Pomeroy’s 44%. Just one percent (1%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while five percent (5%) are undecided.

These findings are little changed from a month ago.

Pomeroy has represented North Dakota in the House since 1993.

Since February, Berg’s support has ranged from a low of 46% to a high of 52%. In the same period, Pomeroy, who was reelected in 2008 with 62% of the vote, has earned 40% to 45%. Any incumbent who earns less than 50% at this stage of the race is considered potentially vulnerable.

Opposition to the health care law in North Dakota remains higher than it is nationally. Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters in the state favor repeal of the measure, while 31% are opposed. This includes 49% who Strongly Favor repeal and 21% who Strongly Oppose it.

Berg gets 79% of the vote from those who Strongly Favor repeal. Eighty-three percent (83%) of those who Strongly Oppose repeal support Pomeroy, who voted for the health care bill in the House.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Dakota was conducted on June 15-16, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nineteen percent (19%) of North Dakota voters say they are members of the Tea Party movement, but the majority (51%) of voters in the state think the movement is good for the country. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say they are not members of the Tea Party, but just 22% view the movement as bad for the nation.

Eighty percent (80%) of Tea Party members support Berg. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of non-members favor Pomeory.

Thirty percent (30%) of North Dakota voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Pomeroy, while 32% view him Very Unfavorably.

Berg is viewed Very Favorably by 21% and Very Unfavorably by seven percent (7%).

At this point in the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable
numbers at this point in a campaign.

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