Minnesota Governor: Emmer (R), Dayton (D) Now In Near Tie

Rasmussen Reports

Republican Tom Emmer and Democrat Mark Dayton are virtually tied now in the race to be Minnesota’s next governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Minnesota Voters shows Emmer earning 42% support to Dayton’s 41% when leaners are included. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is a distant third with nine percent (9%) of the vote. Six percent (6%) like some other candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

The findings move the race to a Toss-Up from Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

This is the first survey of the governor’s race to include leaners. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. Rasmussen Reports now considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.

Excluding leaners, Emmer edges Dayton 36% to 34%, and Horner chalks up 18% support. Horner’s loss of support when leaners are added highlights the tendency in most races for supporters of third-party candidates to gravitate to one of the major party nominees as Election Day approaches.

Last month, with leaners absent from the totals, Dayton held a 45% to 36% lead over Emmer just after both candidates had won four-way primary races.  Horner, who defeated four other hopefuls to win the nomination of the party that sent Jesse Ventura to the governor’s mansion, earned 10% support at the time.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of Emmer supporters say they are already certain how they will vote in November. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of those who support Dayton are already certain of their vote, as are 53% of Horner voters.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted on September 22, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

To read more, visit: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/minnesota/election_2010_minnesota_governor

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