Minnesota Governor: Dayton (D), Emmer (R) Remain in Tight Race

Rasmussen Reports

Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer are still in a virtual tie in Minnesota’s gubernatorial contest.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Dayton picking up 40% of the vote, while Emmer draws support from 38%. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner remains a distant third with 15%. One percent (1%) prefer a different candidate, and five percent (5%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This race remains a Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

In the Minnesota governor’s race, Rasmussen Reports has made a decision not to use our traditional leaners model. Normally, that model shows support falling off for a third-party candidate. However, in Minnesota, third-party candidates often defy that trend, and a look at the initial preference data suggests that may be happening this year.

Two weeks ago, with leaners excluded, Emmer earned 36% support to Dayton’s 34%, with Horner at 18%. Emmer, a state legislator who has been endorsed by Sarah Palin, has received support from 36% to 42% since May. Dayton, a former U.S. senator, has attracted 34% to 45% of the vote during the same period. Horner’s support has fallen in the range of nine percent (9%) to 18% since May.

Seventy-six percent (76%) of both Emmer’s and Dayton’s supporters are certain of their vote next month. Sixty-seven percent (67%) of Horner’s backers say they, too, have already made up their minds.

Emmer and Dayton receive 82% support from voters in their respective parties. Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, 34% support Dayton, 31% back Horner, a Republican-turned-independent, and 27% put their vote behind Emmer.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted on October 6, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Only eight percent (8%) of Minnesota voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent, while 48% say it is poor. Thirty-eight percent (38%) believe economic conditions are getting better, while 37% say they are getting worse. Those assessments are a bit more positive than those found nationally.

To read more, visit: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/minnesota/election_2010_minnesota_governor

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