Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 48%, Democrats 36%

Rasmussen Reports

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% of Likely Voters would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. The survey data was collected on the seven days ending Sunday, September 5, 2010.

This matches the largest advantage ever measured for the Republicans. Three weeks ago, the GOP also held a 12-point lead.

Still, while the margin has varied somewhat from week-to-week, Republicans have been consistently ahead in the Generic Ballot for over a year. During 2010, the GOP edge has never fallen below five points. When Barack Obama first took office as president of the United States, the Democrats enjoyed a seven-point lead on the Generic Ballot.

Results for this survey are compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results and generic ballot trends are available for Platinum Members only.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, notes that “voters are ready to deliver the same message in 2010 that they delivered in 2006 and 2008 as they prepare to vote against the party in power for the third straight election. These results suggest a fundamental rejection of both political parties.”

A new book by Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen addresses the broader discontent roiling the political landscape this year. MAD AS HELL: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System , published by Harper-Collins, will be released September 14. It can be pre-ordered at, Barnes and Noble, Borders, and other outlets.

A commentary by Larry Sabato now projects the Republicans will pick up 47 House seats, eight Senate seats, and eight governorships. These numbers reflect a significant deterioration for the Democrats.

Other recent data shows that the number of Republicans in the nation grew by two percentage points over the past month, while the number of Democrats slipped a bit. As a result, the GOP has closed the partisan gap to the smallest margin in five years.  The percentage of Americans who consider themselves Democrats has fallen by seven percentage points since George W. Bush left office.

The Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Balance of Power shows Democrats with a 48-45 advantage, while seven races remain Toss-Ups (California, Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Ohio Washington, and Wisconsin).

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